Is 18th the best we can hope for?

General chat about the MK Dons and other footy related topics. Other related sites include:

Official website : http://www.mkdons.premiumtv.co.uk/page/Welcome

Milton Keynes Dons Supporters Association - official voice for Milton Keynes Dons FC supporters : http://www.mkdsa.com/

Moderator: MKDons Moderators

Is 18th the best we can hope for?

Postby SG19Cowshed Das Boot » Fri Nov 04, 2016 10:04 am

Looked back at previous seasons to see how our league position after 16 league games, compared with our league position at the end of the season:

2004/5: 22nd & 20th = +2
2005/6: 23rd & 22nd = +1
2006/7: 6th & 4th = +2
2007/8: 1st & 1st = 0
2008/9: 4th & 3rd = +1
2009/10: 4th & 12th = -8
2010/11: 7th & 5th = +2
2011/12: 5th & 5th = 0
2012/13: 8th & 8th = 0
2013/14: 11th & 10th = +1
2014/15: 4th & 2nd = +2
2015/16: 21st & 23rd = -2
2016/17: 20th & ...

So a third of the season is usually a good indicator of where we'll finish within 1 or 2 places either way, the exception being the Ince part 2 season where we dropped 8 places.

We've never improved by more than 2 positions from where we were after 16 games...

So, are there plenty of games left and the new manager can get this squad to the playoffs?
Or is 18th the best we can hope for, even with a new manager?
We all know that the ultimate target and my brief, is to get MK promoted and then promoted. PT

Zone Prediction Champion 2011, 2015, 2016, 2017
Zone L1 Fantasy Football Champion
TCR Prediction Champion & Power of Three League Champion 2018
84/92
User avatar
SG19Cowshed Das Boot
 
Posts: 1745
Joined: Mon Oct 18, 2010 1:41 am
Location: Somewhere in SG19

Re: Is 18th the best we can hope for?

Postby Furzdonny » Fri Nov 04, 2016 10:22 am

A tough one to answer. We have completed for most of the games, except Southend and it could be argued that we should be in a better position, but as you say the table doesn't lie. A new manager could regalvanise the team or take time to get their ideas across. Our spine is quite weak, Dave Martin, Darren Potter & Ben Reeves are OK, but we lack a big & ugly bossy centre half and a striker who can link play and score goals. I am hoping (although I never seen him play) that Chuks Aneke can make a difference when fit, so I will go for mid table (+8).
User avatar
Furzdonny
 
Posts: 1876
Joined: Sat Jun 04, 2011 2:39 pm

Re: Is 18th the best we can hope for?

Postby LinsladeDon » Fri Nov 04, 2016 8:58 pm

We are presently in the mire not because we are a poor team with no quality, but mainly because we play in the same manner week after week after week and opposition managers know exactly what to expect and are well able to prepare their team in a way that enables them to pinch the three points - even when they were second best.
We are not quite a "sleeping giant" of a club but we are certainly an under-performing progressive, ambitious club that needs a good shake-up regarding on-field matters. We don't need a miracle worker to turn things around, and PW will surely find the right man from the 200+ applicants capable of improving our situation - especially with the January transfer window coming soon and with some money available to him.
Little wonder we have had so many would-be managers declare an interest, we are a very attractive proposition and a new man worth his salt should be perfectly capable of getting us into the 6th and last play-off position - just as I forecast at the start of the season :)
LinsladeDon
 
Posts: 3349
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2010 8:47 am

Re: Is 18th the best we can hope for?

Postby ACDon » Fri Nov 04, 2016 11:02 pm

Interesting stats there SG. I'm still hopeful we can reach the play-offs but agree history is against us, so it will be tough even at this early stage of the season.
ACDon
 
Posts: 6486
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2010 6:47 pm

Re: Is 18th the best we can hope for?

Postby MKDF » Fri Nov 04, 2016 11:20 pm

Interesting thread SG. I'm more with LD that these stats. The circumstances are unique for us, and we certainly do have more quality than our position suggests.

Sixth would be a tough proposition, but I still remember the run of 2 draws and 9 wins at the end of 14/15. So anything is possible with extraordinary effort and belief.

Here's a bit of motivation:

http://www.sheffieldtelegraph.co.uk/spo ... -1-8218427
MKDF
 
Posts: 2375
Joined: Tue Mar 06, 2012 2:24 pm

Re: Is 18th the best we can hope for?

Postby SG19Cowshed Das Boot » Sat Nov 05, 2016 1:51 pm

Thanks for the replies, all.

I agree that the squad has significantly underperformed so far, however, it's easy to underestimate the scale of the turnaround & sustained improvement required to catch up all the lost ground and make the playoffs from where we are today, even with two thirds of the season remaining.

Every one of those earlier games in August, September & October, was worth exactly the same number of points as the later games in March, April & May, and all those dropped points would have to be made up for, on top of improving our results from relegation form to promotion form, in order for us to climb up to where the squad probably ought to be on paper.

Even making 10th would be a superb turnaround from where we are, this far into the season, imho.

With 30 league games remaining, the new manager would have about 5 games to turn this squad from losers into winners - Warnock took 4 games to turn around Rotherham for their first league win under him, so that looks about right.

We'd then need to average 2 points per game (that's auto-promotion form) for all the remaining 25 games, to finish on 66-67 points which has usually been about enough for 10th, in 8 of the last 10 years...

To get up into the playoffs, it'd require an instant turnaround and auto-promo form for all the 30 games remaining to get us onto 75-76pts, which has been enough in 7 out of the last 10 years. It's possible, but improbable, imho.

I'm gonna be optimistic and say we'll get 12th despite all the historical evidence suggesting 18th is more like the best we can hope for, but if it takes the new manager any more than 5 games to get us winning regularly, then even that is a long shot, imho.

So lets see who was closest to reality at the end of the season then :lol:
LD - 6th
AC - 6th
MKDF - 6th
Furz - 12th
SG19 - 12th
We all know that the ultimate target and my brief, is to get MK promoted and then promoted. PT

Zone Prediction Champion 2011, 2015, 2016, 2017
Zone L1 Fantasy Football Champion
TCR Prediction Champion & Power of Three League Champion 2018
84/92
User avatar
SG19Cowshed Das Boot
 
Posts: 1745
Joined: Mon Oct 18, 2010 1:41 am
Location: Somewhere in SG19

Re: Is 18th the best we can hope for?

Postby MKDF » Sat Nov 05, 2016 7:04 pm

Having watched the game today, can I change my opinion please? :o
MKDF
 
Posts: 2375
Joined: Tue Mar 06, 2012 2:24 pm

Re: Is 18th the best we can hope for?

Postby LinsladeDon » Sat Nov 05, 2016 8:39 pm

SG19Cowshed Das Boot wrote:With 30 league games remaining, the new manager would have about 5 games to turn this squad from losers into winners - Warnock took 4 games to turn around Rotherham for their first league win under him, so that looks about right.


Only 30 games and we don't even have a new manager yet. I started a rumour at FT by saying that PWs list of managerial applicants had gone from 200+ to 10- as the others had withdrawn their names after watching today's game. Could it possibly be one of those rumours that is closer to the truth than we think? After all, the Bookies have stopped taking bets on the outcome and Steve Evans was in attendance today as was he at Sheff. Utd. The only consolation I can think of is that all 200+ would surely have to withdraw their names before he is seriously considered - surely!!!!!!
LinsladeDon
 
Posts: 3349
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2010 8:47 am

Re: Is 18th the best we can hope for?

Postby ACDon » Sat Nov 05, 2016 9:34 pm

LinsladeDon wrote:
SG19Cowshed Das Boot wrote:With 30 league games remaining, the new manager would have about 5 games to turn this squad from losers into winners - Warnock took 4 games to turn around Rotherham for their first league win under him, so that looks about right.


Only 30 games and we don't even have a new manager yet. I started a rumour at FT by saying that PWs list of managerial applicants had gone from 200+ to 10- as the others had withdrawn their names after watching today's game. Could it possibly be one of those rumours that is closer to the truth than we think? After all, the Bookies have stopped taking bets on the outcome and Steve Evans was in attendance today as was he at Sheff. Utd. The only consolation I can think of is that all 200+ would surely have to withdraw their names before he is seriously considered - surely!!!!!!



Ha ha, just as I thought, the grass isn't always greener!
ACDon
 
Posts: 6486
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2010 6:47 pm

Re: Is 18th the best we can hope for?

Postby LinsladeDon » Sun Nov 06, 2016 9:42 am

ACDon wrote:
LinsladeDon wrote:
SG19Cowshed Das Boot wrote:With 30 league games remaining, the new manager would have about 5 games to turn this squad from losers into winners - Warnock took 4 games to turn around Rotherham for their first league win under him, so that looks about right.


Only 30 games and we don't even have a new manager yet. I started a rumour at FT by saying that PWs list of managerial applicants had gone from 200+ to 10- as the others had withdrawn their names after watching today's game. Could it possibly be one of those rumours that is closer to the truth than we think? After all, the Bookies have stopped taking bets on the outcome and Steve Evans was in attendance today as was he at Sheff. Utd. The only consolation I can think of is that all 200+ would surely have to withdraw their names before he is seriously considered - surely!!!!!!



Ha ha, just as I thought, the grass isn't always greener!


I take that as a bit of frivolity on both sides AC ;) One thing is for sure though, if Robbo hadn't gone after the last home game v Southend he would have certainly gone after the awful performance v Spennymoor. The quicker we get a new man in the better- this was relegation form we saw yesterday. :(
LinsladeDon
 
Posts: 3349
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2010 8:47 am

Next

Return to Milton Keynes Dons FC - MK Dons and general footy chat

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 34 guests

cron