Is 18th the best we can hope for?

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Re: Is 18th the best we can hope for?

Postby ACDon » Sun Nov 06, 2016 9:48 am

LinsladeDon wrote:
ACDon wrote:
LinsladeDon wrote:
Only 30 games and we don't even have a new manager yet. I started a rumour at FT by saying that PWs list of managerial applicants had gone from 200+ to 10- as the others had withdrawn their names after watching today's game. Could it possibly be one of those rumours that is closer to the truth than we think? After all, the Bookies have stopped taking bets on the outcome and Steve Evans was in attendance today as was he at Sheff. Utd. The only consolation I can think of is that all 200+ would surely have to withdraw their names before he is seriously considered - surely!!!!!!



Ha ha, just as I thought, the grass isn't always greener!


I take that as a bit of frivolity on both sides AC ;) One thing is for sure though, if Robbo hadn't gone after the last home game v Southend he would have certainly gone after the awful performance v Spennymoor. The quicker we get a new man in the better- this was relegation form we saw yesterday. :(


TBH, I thought the last 20 minutes was worse than relegation form. :(
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Re: Is 18th the best we can hope for?

Postby SG19Cowshed Das Boot » Sat Nov 12, 2016 1:06 pm

18th in League 1 would be a significant improvement, based on what we saw against the mighty Spennymoor.
Still no new manager in yet, so whoever it will be, has one game fewer to get us back up into 10th... ;)
We all know that the ultimate target and my brief, is to get MK promoted and then promoted. PT

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Re: Is 18th the best we can hope for?

Postby SG19Cowshed Das Boot » Sun May 06, 2018 7:24 pm

SG19Cowshed Das Boot wrote:Thanks for the replies, all.

I agree that the squad has significantly underperformed so far, however, it's easy to underestimate the scale of the turnaround & sustained improvement required to catch up all the lost ground and make the playoffs from where we are today, even with two thirds of the season remaining.

Every one of those earlier games in August, September & October, was worth exactly the same number of points as the later games in March, April & May, and all those dropped points would have to be made up for, on top of improving our results from relegation form to promotion form, in order for us to climb up to where the squad probably ought to be on paper.

Even making 10th would be a superb turnaround from where we are, this far into the season, imho.

With 30 league games remaining, the new manager would have about 5 games to turn this squad from losers into winners - Warnock took 4 games to turn around Rotherham for their first league win under him, so that looks about right.

We'd then need to average 2 points per game (that's auto-promotion form) for all the remaining 25 games, to finish on 66-67 points which has usually been about enough for 10th, in 8 of the last 10 years...

To get up into the playoffs, it'd require an instant turnaround and auto-promo form for all the 30 games remaining to get us onto 75-76pts, which has been enough in 7 out of the last 10 years. It's possible, but improbable, imho.

I'm gonna be optimistic and say we'll get 12th despite all the historical evidence suggesting 18th is more like the best we can hope for, but if it takes the new manager any more than 5 games to get us winning regularly, then even that is a long shot, imho.

So lets see who was closest to reality at the end of the season then :lol:
LD - 6th
AC - 6th
MKDF - 6th
Furz - 12th
SG19 - 12th
Holy thread resurrection, Batman... ;)

Forgot to update this thread last season - as it turned out, the new manager (Robbie Neilson) was the first MK Dons manager to improve our final league position by more than 2 places from where we were after 16 league games.

Well done to mystic Furz for also correctly predicting we'd finish in 12th for 2016/17.

Neilson took over with the Dons in 19th place after 20 league games, and improved our league place by +7 places by the end of the season with pretty much the same squad as his predecessor Robinson had prior to his sacking - an exceptional and unprecedented improvement.


Fast forward to this season, and after 16 league games at the end of October 2017, MK Dons were in 16th place on 19 points.
When Neilson was finally sacked after a terrible middle part of the season which saw just two more league wins by late January, the Dons were already 5 places lower in 21st place on 30 points after 28 league games.

Unfortunately for us, the new new manager (Dan Micciche) proved to be even less competent at maximising results from the available "talent" than his predecessor, losing 9 more league games before being sacked after the worst start (or finish) by far, by any MK Dons manager in our history, and with the Dons 2 places further down the league table in 23rd with relegation an inevitability.


So next year, after 16 league games, it's been established that it's indeed possible we can gain or lose more than 2 league places from wherever we are in the league at that time. Here's the updated stats:

2004/5: 22nd & 20th = +2
2005/6: 23rd & 22nd = +1
2006/7: 6th & 4th = +2
2007/8: 1st & 1st = 0
2008/9: 4th & 3rd = +1
2009/10: 4th & 12th = -8
2010/11: 7th & 5th = +2
2011/12: 5th & 5th = 0
2012/13: 8th & 8th = 0
2013/14: 11th & 10th = +1
2014/15: 4th & 2nd = +2
2015/16: 21st & 23rd = -2
2016/17: 20th & 12th = +8
2017/18: 16th & 23rd = -7

Time will tell whether it's +/- 7 or 8 league places again under the new new new manager next season, or just the more usual & probable +/- 2 places... ;)

COYD!
We all know that the ultimate target and my brief, is to get MK promoted and then promoted. PT

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Re: Is 18th the best we can hope for?

Postby Furzdonny » Mon May 07, 2018 7:50 am

I don't think anyone would have predicted this season Boot, although it's plain to see that the club is going through a period of volatility. Congratulations on your achievements, perhaps you should go for the job. :D
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Re: Is 18th the best we can hope for?

Postby SG19Cowshed Das Boot » Mon May 07, 2018 8:11 am

:lol:
No predictions from me until we see who the new manager is & what their summer recruitment is like (Surely it can't be any worse than the past three summers, can it? Can it?), and more accurately until 10-16 league games have taken place.
You (were) brave mystic Furz, already predicting 2nd place next season. ;)
For me it'd be a relief simply to win more games than we lose for the first time in three seasons...

Last time we were relegated to League 2, we enjoyed 50% of the best seasons in our history, thanks to some good recruitment & experienced/inspiring management.
Looking forward to a quick return to League 1, with some good recruitment & experienced/inspiring management making League 2 enjoyable, like last time. :D
We all know that the ultimate target and my brief, is to get MK promoted and then promoted. PT

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Re: Is 18th the best we can hope for?

Postby Furzdonny » Mon May 07, 2018 10:38 am

Yes a 2nd place prediction from me. I wouldn't put my house on it, but a small chalet in the south of France maybe. :D
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