The run in.....

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Re: The run in.....

Postby MKDF » Wed Apr 11, 2018 9:46 pm

1-1. Good result in the end. :D

But what a match between RM and Juve. :o
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Re: The run in.....

Postby dons50 » Wed Apr 11, 2018 9:59 pm

MKDF wrote:1-1. Good result in the end. :D

But what a match between RM and Juve. :o


Amazing finish. Michael Oliver had better not book an Italian holiday anytime soon.
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Re: The run in.....

Postby MKDF » Wed Apr 11, 2018 10:02 pm

dons50 wrote:
MKDF wrote:1-1. Good result in the end. :D

But what a match between RM and Juve. :o


Amazing finish. Michael Oliver had better not book an Italian holiday anytime soon.


:lol:
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Re: The run in.....

Postby Furzdonny » Wed Apr 11, 2018 10:12 pm

dons50 wrote:
MKDF wrote:1-1. Good result in the end. :D

But what a match between RM and Juve. :o


Amazing finish. Michael Oliver had better not book an Italian holiday anytime soon.


He should be OK with a Spanish one though.
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Re: The run in.....

Postby MKDF » Thu Apr 12, 2018 7:20 am

ACDon wrote:I'm not sure how I want tonight's game to map out, one thing is for sure, Oldham or Walsall (maybe both if it's a draw) will be sitting further above us by 10pm. I agree 52 points may not even be enough, but if I was offered that total now I would take it. As already said, we need to take one game at a time.

Just to outline our chances of staying up, we are currently a best priced 2/13 to be relegated and a best priced 5/1 to stay up and as the old saying goes; "the bookies aren't wrong very often"...........but they are occasionally! ;)


All our remaining games are reasonably winnable, but we don't play any rivals. But several of our rivals still have to play each other, which gives each of them a realistic chance to reach 50 points plus.

Drawing from my decades old and very weak computer schooling, I think the Boolean logic is straight forward:

For all the teams around us up to 52 points for the remainder of the season, we want the results to be "do not win". That gives a draw when playing each other. For us, until we reach 52 points, we want "win". That will result in us leapfrogging everyone below Walsall and maybe Walsall too if they lose two games or more.

If the results don't stray too much from those two formulas, the better chance we have of staying up. Ergo the 1-1 last night was a good result.

It's a simpler way of cutting through all the permutations.

I find the likelihood graph being used in the other forum fun, but it doesn't help my anxiety. While it is a terrific probability model, it isn't predictive until we get to the latter stages. That's because the range of possible outcomes widens for teams playing each other the further down the table you go.
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Re: The run in.....

Postby ACDon » Thu Apr 12, 2018 10:55 am

I will also be keeping an eye on tonight's game between Bradford City and Shrewsbury, a draw will make Bradford safe and make it tougher for Shrewsbury to make the top 2. The result being our re-arranged game at Bradford City will have no real meaning to them and hopefully by the time we play Shrewsbury they will be cemented in third with no chance of finishing in the top 2. Quite a lot of ifs and buts there but we have to live in hope :)
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Re: The run in.....

Postby LinsladeDon » Thu Apr 12, 2018 11:52 am

MKDF wrote:All our remaining games are reasonably winnable, but we don't play any rivals. But several of our rivals still have to play each other, which gives each of them a realistic chance to reach 50 points plus.


ACDon wrote:. Quite a lot of ifs and buts there but we have to live in hope :)


Sounds like we have our own mini-Malta situation and have to keep the Faith, have some Hope and desperately need some Charity.

(PS, As you may be too young to remember; Faith, Hope and Charity were the names given to three Gloster Gladiatior Bi-planes which were the only aircraft Malta had to defend itself at the start of WWII)
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Re: The run in.....

Postby MKDF » Thu Apr 12, 2018 12:29 pm

Good thinking AC.

LD - glad you made that link for us! In my mind, hope and charity are airborne while faith is struggling to get to Vr. ;)
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