SG19Cowshed Das Boot wrote:Thanks for the replies, all.
I agree that the squad has significantly underperformed so far, however, it's easy to underestimate the scale of the turnaround & sustained improvement required to catch up all the lost ground and make the playoffs from where we are today, even with two thirds of the season remaining.
Every one of those earlier games in August, September & October, was worth exactly the same number of points as the later games in March, April & May, and all those dropped points would have to be made up for, on top of improving our results from relegation form to promotion form, in order for us to climb up to where the squad probably ought to be on paper.
Even making 10th would be a superb turnaround from where we are, this far into the season, imho.
With 30 league games remaining, the new manager would have about 5 games to turn this squad from losers into winners - Warnock took 4 games to turn around Rotherham for their first league win under him, so that looks about right.
We'd then need to average 2 points per game (that's auto-promotion form) for all the remaining 25 games, to finish on 66-67 points which has usually been about enough for 10th, in 8 of the last 10 years...
To get up into the playoffs, it'd require an instant turnaround and auto-promo form for all the 30 games remaining to get us onto 75-76pts, which has been enough in 7 out of the last 10 years. It's possible, but improbable, imho.
I'm gonna be optimistic and say we'll get 12th despite all the historical evidence suggesting 18th is more like the best we can hope for, but if it takes the new manager any more than 5 games to get us winning regularly, then even that is a long shot, imho.
So lets see who was closest to reality at the end of the season then
LD - 6th
AC - 6th
MKDF - 6th
Furz - 12th
SG19 - 12th
Holy thread resurrection, Batman...
Forgot to update this thread last season - as it turned out, the new manager (Robbie Neilson) was the first MK Dons manager to improve our final league position by more than 2 places from where we were after 16 league games.
Well done to mystic Furz for also correctly predicting we'd finish in
12th for 2016/17.
Neilson took over with the Dons in 19th place after 20 league games, and improved our league place by +7 places by the end of the season with pretty much the same squad as his predecessor Robinson had prior to his sacking - an exceptional and unprecedented improvement.
Fast forward to this season, and after 16 league games at the end of October 2017, MK Dons were in 16th place on 19 points.
When Neilson was finally sacked after a terrible middle part of the season which saw just two more league wins by late January, the Dons were already 5 places lower in 21st place on 30 points after 28 league games.
Unfortunately for us, the
new new manager (Dan Micciche) proved to be even less competent at maximising results from the available "talent" than his predecessor, losing 9 more league games before being sacked after the worst start (or finish) by far, by any MK Dons manager in our history, and with the Dons 2 places further down the league table in 23rd with relegation an inevitability.
So next year, after 16 league games, it's been established that it's indeed
possible we can gain or lose more than 2 league places from wherever we are in the league at that time. Here's the updated stats:
2004/5: 22nd & 20th = +2
2005/6: 23rd & 22nd = +1
2006/7: 6th & 4th = +2
2007/8: 1st & 1st = 0
2008/9: 4th & 3rd = +1
2009/10: 4th & 12th = -8
2010/11: 7th & 5th = +2
2011/12: 5th & 5th = 0
2012/13: 8th & 8th = 0
2013/14: 11th & 10th = +1
2014/15: 4th & 2nd = +2
2015/16: 21st & 23rd = -2
2016/17: 20th & 12th = +8
2017/18: 16th & 23rd = -7
Time will tell whether it's +/- 7 or 8 league places again under the
new new new manager next season, or just the more usual &
probable +/- 2 places...
COYD!
